Climate change and the key role of communication
It is now well known that climate change is the biggest mid-to-long term issue facing humankind.[1] If the world continues to warm up based on recent trends, the costs can be significant.[2] To avoid catastrophic disasters, in the UNFCCC COP in Paris in 2015, we agreed to limit to a 2°C warming by 2100.[3] We further revised this target to a 1.5°C warming in 2018.[4]
However, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in Paris target a 3°C pathway,[5] and current implementation is lacking even for that.[6] In fact, we are currently on a 4.1–4.8°C pathway,[7] which is likely to result in $17 trillion of damages per year[8] (i.e., about 20% of the world’s GDP in 2019[9]).
So, what is going on behind this lackluster performance by humankind? If we know climate change is the biggest issue, why are we not moving fast enough to address it? Are there obstacles to our moving forward in an expedited fashion? This brings up the question: What are the barriers to climate change mitigation?
Typical barriers that are cited in response include the following: technology, economics, finance, etc.[10] It is worthwhile to examine if each of these is indeed a barrier.
First, technology is no longer a barrier.[11] In fact, research as early as the early 2000s establishes that we already possess the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial portfolio to solve the climate problem. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond research and development; many are already implemented at full industrial scale.
Second, economics is unlikely to be a barrier. Many climate-friendly technologies, such as solar and wind energy,[12] are already cheaper than comparable fossil fuel-based technologies such as coal and gas. Many other climate-friendly technologies, such as electric vehicles,[13] are either already cheaper or are likely to soon become cheaper than comparable fossil fuel-based technologies such as internal combustion engine vehicles.
Third, we cannot simply blame it on lack of finance.[14] While there is plenty of capital available,[15] financial decision makers invest to maximize risk-adjusted returns. Therefore, they need to have relevant climate friendly investment opportunities available to them, without which required investments are unlikely to happen. An example of this is lack of bankable climate-friendly projects in developing countries.[16]
Thus, what really remains is the lack of policies that would drive investment towards climate0friendly technologies in a long-term and consistent manner.[17] In fact, the calculations are simple — what we really need is a global carbon tax at $75 per ton.[18] This would provide developers and investors precisely the signal they need to start moving capital towards climate-friendly technologies in a significant way.
The reason appropriate policies are not in place is lack of political will.[19] Despite an ambitious start of the UNFCCC in 1992,[20] governments around the world have either not committed or have frequently changed their climate commitments. The recent withdrawal of the US from the Paris treaty is a glaring example,[21]and Australia’s backtracking on their climate commitments in the mid 2010s also stands out.
Eventually, we — as voters — are to blame,[22] because we choose our leaders and influence their choices. So why are we not making climate change a priority in our expectations? At the end of the day, we need to believe[23] that climate change is a priority issue not only in the long term but also in the short term,[24] and then not only vote[25] but also influence our elected leaders to create much-needed policies.
We need to communicate the climate urgency now, given the current impacts of climate change on, for example, weather,[26] These impacts include storms, fire, disease, etc. In this context, what is needed is large-scale education on a very complex, somewhat uncertain, and long-term issue.[27] Furthermore, this education should be localized to individual context,[28] for example the economy, job security, crime, and local school quality.[29]
This will require communication that the common person can not only understand[30] but also prioritize in the short-term. [31] That is, we need climate change communication that works for individuals.[32] This includes strategies for making this communication work,[33] with a particular focus on how the messages are framed and how common ground is sought.[34]
Examples of effective climate change communication include following: using scientific consensus as a way to reduce politicization across liberals and conservatives; [35] demonstrating localized health risks of extreme heat caused by climate change[36] as well as of the broader health impacts caused by climate change itself;[37] etc.
We need focused efforts to educate the common public on climate change and appropriately shape their perception. The Climate Change Communication program at Yale is a shining example[38] that advocates always staying on the positive.[39] Another shining example is the Center for Climate Change Communications at George Mason University.[40] Replication of these initiatives is sorely required to create impact at scale.
However, communicating the climate urgency at the required scale will require significant public funding — from governments and philanthropies — to flow towards effective marketing communications for climate change, including rigorous research.[41] This is currently lacking to a large extent,[42] in particular in the face of opposition by well-funded fossil fuel lobbies that continue to undermine climate change efforts.[43]Thus, we need funding for climate change communication to step up!
[3] See https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
[4] See https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338
[6] See https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
[7] See https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
[8] See https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF000922
[9] See https://www.statista.com/statistics/268750/global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
[11] See https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.642.8472
[14] See https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/climate-change-is-bad-for-business-heres-how-to-fight-it/
[15] See https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/business/green-investments-climate-change.html
[16] See https://www.adb.org/publications/green-finance-catalyzing-facility
[17] See https://www.unepfi.org/fileadmin/documents/Investment-GradeClimateChangePolicy.pdf
[18] See https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/carbon-tax-most-powerful-way-to-combat-climate-change-imf.html
[21] See https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/773474657/u-s-formally-begins-to-leave-the-paris-climate-agreement
[22] See https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/article/inconvenient-data-voter-apathy-cost-carbon/
[23] See https://news.gallup.com/poll/276932/several-issues-tie-important-2020-election.aspx
[25] See https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/26/climate-crisis-us-news-polls-vote
[27] See https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/Climate-Outreach-IPCC-communications-handbook.pdf
[28] See https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/Climate-Outreach-IPCC-communications-handbook.pdf
[29] See https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/how-to-talk-effectively-about-climate-change/
[31] See https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/Climate-Outreach-IPCC-communications-handbook.pdf
[32] See https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/identifying-climate-messages-work/
[34] See https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/how-to-talk-effectively-about-climate-change/
[36] See https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/heat-wave-risk-perceptions/
[37] See https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/medical_alert.pdf
[38] See https://climatecommunication.yale.edu
[40] See https://www.climatechangecommunication.org
[42] See https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/how-to-talk-effectively-about-climate-change/
[43] See https://www.climatechangecommunication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/America_Misled.pdf
